2 nagging questions

[thewave]

In season 1, Arst said that the monsoons were coming very soon. Well where are they? Could Arst have been a mole to get the boat to leave sooner rather than later?

In the last episode, Locke mentions that he did not see Sawyer's name on the flight manifest. Well isn't that the same way they determined that Ethan was a spy? Why do you think they would they think that of Ethan but not Sawyer?

[bigsexy]

first question, only 10 days have passed since the end of last season and the beginning of this season. So, "soon" could mean a lot of things. Also, due to the electromagnetic activity on the island, i think the weather there may be controlled by something...

Notice it hasn't rained since shannon died....
It usually rains when someone is in danger or dies....
It never rains on the beach....

[bigsexy]

Second question, this is a great conundrum. Perhaps locke noticed where Sawyer was sitting in relation to himself, and then saw the name under the seat #. However, why didn't hurley notice when he had the manifest? This is a very good catch, and probably a production snafu...

[matt]

Good questions. I meant to look up those monsoon patterns a while back, but forgot. You certainly assume it would affect people on the island, and may even have resulted in the Black Rock landing on the island.

As for the second, Hurley may have sorted it out with Sawyer. After all, he doesn't go by his given name either.

[Dragavan]

First Question:
This one has a more conclusive and serious answer, free of most conjecture and theoretical guessing. Ardzt was concerned that monsoon season was coming and that it would lead to changes in wind and, more importantly, ocean current patterns. He never said that the island was due to be hit by one soon, only that these patterns would change soon because of monsoon season and that it would make getting to the shipping lanes near impossible.

I know from the many earth science classes I took back in my school days that things happening hundreds or even thousands of miles away from you can greatly affect things where you are at, especially weather patterns and ocean currents. Monsoons, hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, and other major ecological events can have amazing affects on these patterns. So our not seeing a monsoon hit the island means nothing when talking about what Ardzt was worried about... Plus, he may not have been as bright as he said he was (he did blow up being stupid, after all) and may not have been completely accurate.

Second Question:
This one is going to be more a guess on my part, but based on serious contemplation of the characters and situation involved... Assuming it was not just a mistake on the writer's part (which could very well be). First off we have "Rule 1" of lost, where you have to understand that pretty much everyone on the island keeps information to themselves (even when it should be shared). So Locke knowing this and not saying anything until now is not a mystery, how he knew it is. We also have "Rule 2" of lost, where it seems like most everyone has very selective curiosity about things. Overboard on some things and totally ignoring all others.

In that episode Hugo was asking everyone who they were and comparing it to the flight manifest. We did not see all of the conversations he had with everyone, or even all of the ones we did see (as they tended to be cut off by scene changes and commercials). Sawyer would have known they would have ferreted out his fake name when Hurley talked to him about it. Although he is a difficult person he would not want this to become common knowledge so he might have told Hurley enough to not bring up suspicion.

In which case Hugo would know his name, but wouldn't be likely to share it (see "rule" above) with anyone freely. Others wouldn't seem to be interested in the lust (see "rule" 2 above), with the likely exception of Locke, who is the one who seems immune to this rule and wants to know about everything (although not usually overboard... yes, there are exceptions, like the hatch). So Locke would casually ask to see the lists and commit them to memory, noting any anomalies for later use.

Both of these things made perfect sense to me. Still do... But I can see how there could be some question about the second issue you brought up. The first one is just nature and logic. Both may be mistakes on the writer's part (the second more likely than the first), but I don't think either is.

[Sunan]

Can you say "chaos theory"?

[Dragavan]

sunan said:

Can you say "chaos theory"?

It doesn't even have to go as far as Chaos Theory (something I heard way too much about since my best friend from years ago was obsessed with it), just known patterns of weather cycles caused by seasonal changes. The most often heard one around here is El Ninio, which comes every so many years. It is a ocean current of warm water that changes direction and distance enough to effect our weather patterns here in the Pacific states of the USA. This is an ongoing and chartable pattern.

The same kind of knowledge is had about "Monsoon Season" in the western Pacific, "Hurricane Season" in the western Atlantic, "Tornado Season" in the central states, and other such repeating patterns. Some are more chartable and predicable than other, but they are all something that affects areas much larger than just the area actually "hit" by them. Sometimes it's other major things like flooding, storms, tidal waves, or even droughts. Other times it's much subtler, but just as important, affects like wind changes, temperature changes, and even current changes.

Although Chaos Theory can come into this, these are far more connected than what most Chaos Theory talks about. If it had been an idea of the deforestation of South America being the cause of why the currents changes around the island and they would not have been able to reach the shipping lanes, that would have been more Chaos Theory. Or crazier still, that American Idol having a new season was the direct cause.

Anyways (ding), I just wanted to clear up that I was talking about something more of understandable record than Chaos Theory. Meteorologists have tracked these patterns for many years and can chart when they tend to start and stop, and what some of the many causes for them are. Chaos Theory has its affect on them, but is not them.